Illinois Regional COVID-19 Resurgence Criteria

IDPH is monitoring key indicators to identify early but significant increases of COVID-19 transmission in Illinois, potentially signifying resurgence. These indicators are calculated for the 11 Illinois COVID-19 regions. IDPH will monitor if these indicators show an increase in the COVID-19 disease burden with a simultaneous decrease in hospital capacity. These indicators can be used to determine whether additional community mitigation interventions are needed for a region to control the further spread of COVID-19.

Indicators are calculated daily for each region based on the most current, complete data. Each indicator is compared to a pre-established threshold criteria to evaluate the COVID-19 disease burden and hospital resource capacity. By applying the same metrics to each region, IDPH uses a standardized approach to monitor the state as a whole while also monitoring regional trends.

IDPH will continue to track the positivity rates and hospital capacity metrics in regions over 14-day monitoring periods to determine if mitigations can be relaxed, if additional mitigations are required, or if current mitigations should remain in place. For Tier 3 mitigation metrics to be relaxed (i.e., move to Tier 2), a region must experience less than 12% test positivity rate (7-day rolling average) for three consecutive days, AND greater than 20% percent available intensive care unit (ICU) and medical/surgical bed availability (3-day rolling average) for three consecutive days, AND decline in the number of COVID-19 patients in the hospital (7-day rolling average) in 7 out of the last 10 days. Each of these metrics is described in more details in the methodology section on this page.  

Data are provisional and are updated daily. Data updated:  

Region#

 

Test Positivity 7-Day Rolling Average

# Days of Positivity Under 12% Threshold

 

Hospital Bed Availability 3-Day Rolling Average

# Consecutive Days

# Consecutive Days

 

COVID-19 Patients in the Hospital 7-Day Rolling Average

# Days

 
IL COVID-19 Regions Methodology

Test Positivity

Each day, for each region and county, a 7-day test positivity average is calculated by dividing the sum of COVID-19 positive tests for 7 days by the sum of the total COVID-19 tests for the same 7 days, rounded to one decimal place. Whenever the test positivity average (for 7 days) increases from the previous day or is 12% or greater, it is flagged. The data is published online with a three-day lag.

Calculation: 100 x [Sum of positive tests for 7 days] / [Sum of total tests for same 7 days]

Beginning October 14, 2020, IDPH adjusted data reporting for Region 6.  Champaign County and its data are included in Region 6, but University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign saliva testing is broken out separately.  This allows for better identification of testing needs and trends in the region.

Medical/Surgical Beds Percent Availability

Each day, for each region, the sum of the available medical and surgical beds over three days is divided by the sum of the total medical and surgical beds (i.e., bed capacity) over the same period.

Calculation: 100 x [Sum of medical and surgical beds available in the region for 3 days] / [Sum of total medical and surgical beds in the region for same 3 days]

Intensive Care Unit (ICU) Percent Availability

Each day, for each region, the sum of the available ICU beds over three days is divided by the sum of the total ICU beds (i.e., bed capacity) over the same period.

Calculation: 100 x [Sum of ICU beds available in the region for 3 days] / [Sum of total ICU beds in the region for same 3 days]

Hospital Beds Occupied by a COVID-19 Patient

Each day, for each region, a 7-day average is calculated by summing the daily number of hospital beds occupied by a suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patient over 7 days and then dividing this sum by 7.

Calculation: [Sum of suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patients in the region over 7 days] / 7

 

 

Region 6 (Excluding UIUC Saliva Tests) Test Positivity