Statewide Reopening Metrics

After decreases in cases, deaths, and hospitalizations related to COVID-19, IDPH is monitoring key indicators to identify early increases of virus transmission in Illinois, potentially signifying resurgence. These indicators are calculated for the entire state. IDPH will monitor if these indicators show an increase in the COVID-19 disease burden with a simultaneous decrease in hospital capacity. These indicators can be used to determine whether Illinois moves into the bridge phase and Phase 5 respectively.

Indicators are calculated daily for Illinois based on the most current, complete data. Each indicator is monitored for the trend over 28 days to evaluate the COVID-19 disease burden and hospital resource capacity. By applying the same metrics across Illinois, IDPH uses a standardized approach to monitor the state as a whole.

IDPH will continue to track the vaccinations rates and hospital capacity metrics, and cases over 28-day monitoring periods to determine if the state can move into the bridge phase or Phase 5.

Illinois will move to the bridge phase when 70% of the population 65 years and older has received at least one dose of vaccine, and to Phase 5 when 50% of the population 16 years and older has received at least one dose of vaccine. In addition, when moving to both the bridge phase and Phase 5, the state could advance if there are a non-increasing trends in hospital admissions for COVID-19 like illness, and COVID-19 patients in the hospital, while ICU bed availability must remain greater than or equal to 20% over the most recent 28 days.

Illinois could move back to the bridge phase or Phase 4, if over 10 days the trend of new cases increases and at least one of the following is true: hospital ICU availability is below 20%, there is a significant increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations, or total COVID-19 patients in the hospital. New evidence concerning variants, vaccine effectiveness, or waning immunity could substantially and quickly increase COVID-19 hospitalizations and will be taken into consideration, in addition to the metrics being monitored.

IDPH will continue to monitor mortality, but it will not be a metric used to determine moving through the phases.

Data are provisional and are updated daily. Data Updated: ##/##/####

New Hospital Admissions for COVID-19-like-Illness

Trend Direction: #

 

Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19

Trend Direction: #

 

Average Available and Staffed ICU Beds

 

COVID-19 Daily Mortality

Trend Direction: #

 

COVID-19 Daily Cases

Trend Direction: #

 

The following vaccination data are pulled from I-CARE and do not reflect federal efforts to vaccinate Illinoisans. CDC reports the total number of people who reside in Illinois who have been vaccinated, including Illinois residents who have been vaccinated in other states.

Percent of People 65+ Vaccinated

 

Percent of People 16+ Vaccinated

 

Methodology

Vaccination Rate (First Dose)

Vaccine administrations are reported to the Illinois-Comprehensive Automated Immunization Registry Exchange (I-CARE). Administered vaccines are reported based on the date IDPH receives the vaccination record.

Calculation: [Total First Dose of Vaccine Administered in persons 65+] / [population 65+]
Population 65+ = 1,992,961

COVID-19-like-Illness (CLI) Admissions

COVID-19-like-Illness (CLI) new hospital admissions are reported to the Illinois Syndromic Surveillance System. Visits are defined as CLI if the patient presents with a fever AND either cough, difficulty breathing or is given a diagnosis of COVID-19. Data is provisional, and a three-day lag after admission is used to allow time for IDPH to receive more complete data before analysis is performed.

Trend analysis uses a regression test for the most recent 28 days to detect any increasing trends in hospital admissions. If new admissions are <150/day statewide, increasing trends will not be considered concerning.

Hospital Beds Occupied by a COVID-19 Patient

The number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is reported daily by each hospital to IDPH EMResouces and represents the daily total number of hospital beds occupied by a suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patient.

Trend analysis uses a regression test for the most recent 28 days to detect any increasing trends in hospital admissions. If total COVID-19 patients in hospital are <750/day, increasing trends will not be considered concerning.

Number of Deaths

Deaths of lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 are reported in the Illinois-National Electronic Disease Surveillance System (I-NEDSS) as the underlying cause of death or the contributing cause of death, confirmed either by investigations or record match with the Illinois Vital Records data.

Trend analysis uses a regression test for the most recent 28 days to detect any increasing trends in the number of deaths reported. If the daily death rate is <0.1/100,000 population, increasing trends will not be considered concerning.

Intensive Care Unit (ICU) Beds Percent Availability

Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds availability is reported daily by each hospital to IDPH EMResources and represents the number of ICU hospital beds that are empty.

Calculation: ICU availability = [Sum of ICU beds available for 7 days] / [Total ICU beds for 7 days] x 100

Target: At least 20% of ICU beds are available

Number of New Cases

COVID-19 cases are newly identified lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 that are reported in the Illinois-National Electronic Disease Surveillance System (I-NEDSS).

Trend analysis uses a regression test for the most recent 28 days to detect any increasing trends in new COVID-19 cases.